US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Trump · market-implied 99.8%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-31.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
99.8%
Model estimate
31.5%
YES
99.8%
NO
0.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -4.0 pts · 3.9× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-33.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
99.8%
Model estimate
33.5%
YES
99.8%
NO
0.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
99.8%
NO
0.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 99.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 68.5%, indicating a possible -31.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -4.0 pts · 3.9× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO