US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Market-implied 64.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.
Active signals
Overreaction
Market-implied
64.5%
Est. fair value
60.5%
Edge -4.0 pts (EFV − market)
Why this is flagged: 1h move of 8.0 pts is 6.8× typical short-term volatility—larger than usual vs the past week.
Momentum
Market-implied
64.5%
Est. fair value
64.5%
Edge 0.0 pts (EFV − market)
Why this is flagged: 6h and 24h moves point the same direction; magnitude 8.0 pts / 7.0 pts—trend is consistent over these windows (not a prediction).
Order book
Market-implied
64.5%
Est. fair value
—
No EFV for this rule — liquidity / spread only.
Why this is flagged: Top-of-book liquidity is thinner than usual at a 0.010 bid–ask spread—min side is well under recent median depth. Prices may be noisier.