BinaryStreaks

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Updated 12h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Trump · market-implied 54.5%

Below estimatePolymarketVolume ~15,479,978.943← All markets

Recent price

54.5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.

Active signals

US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Market Overreaction

Confidence High
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+5.0 pts

Moderate edge

Market-implied

54.5%

Model estimate

59.5%

YES

54.5%

NO

45.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: 1h move -10.0 pts · 5.8× typical volatility

US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Polymarket

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low

Edge

0.0 pts

Market-implied

54.5%

Model estimate

-

YES

54.5%

NO

45.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -10.0 pts · Δ24h -10.0 pts (same direction)

US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Polymarket

Low Liquidity Warning

Confidence Mid

YES

54.5%

NO

45.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 54.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 59.5%, indicating a possible +5.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: 1h move -10.0 pts · 5.8× typical volatility

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Trump →

Related markets

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
54¢
Best ask (buy)
55¢
Spread
1¢
Midpoint
55¢

NO

No live book