Methodology
Signals are produced with transparent, documented rules over ingested public data-the model estimate is a heuristic, not a forecast of outcomes. Confidence is a UI clarity label (Low → High), not a claim about real-world odds.
How to read Opportunities
Opportunities highlight where our estimate differs from the current market-implied price. This is informational only-not trading advice.
Market-implied
The probability implied by current traded prices (what the market is paying for).
Model estimate
A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule provides one. It can be empty for signals focused on liquidity/spreads.
Edge (pts)
“Edge” is the gap between the model estimate and market-implied, expressed in percentage points.
Example (YES): market implies YES 0.8%, model estimates YES 2.0% → edge +1.2 pts.
Example (NO): market implies YES 43.5%, model estimates YES 4.4% → the value side becomes NO (market is pricing YES much higher than the estimate).
Entry price
The current price to take the highlighted side (best available ask when live order book data is available; otherwise a simple price fallback).
Payout & breakeven calculator
Informational only. Uses a simplified $1 / $0 payoff per share.
Cost
$4.40
Payout if correct
$10.00
Max profit
$5.60
Max loss
$4.40
Breakeven probability (for YES)
44.0%
If your true probability for YES is above this, the trade is positive EV in expectation (under that belief).