Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Trump · market-implied 0.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+11.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
0.5%
Model estimate
12.0%
YES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +6.5 pts · Δ24h +6.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 12.0%, indicating a possible +11.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +6.5 pts · Δ24h +6.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related markets
No related markets found.
Execution
YES
NO