US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?
Trump · market-implied 25.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of former First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba Raul Castro between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+7.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
25.5%
Model estimate
32.5%
YES
25.5%
NO
74.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +19.0 pts · Δ24h +19.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
25.5%
NO
74.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 25.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 32.5%, indicating a possible +7.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +19.0 pts · Δ24h +19.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO