Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15?
Culture · market-implied 0.3%
Recent price
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Active signals
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
0.3%
NO
99.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.086 vs 0.030 · wide
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.7 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.3%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
0.3%
NO
99.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -7.3 pts · Δ24h -4.3 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.086 vs 0.030 · wide
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO