Prediction market intelligence, movers & signals

Public prediction market intelligence from ingested data. Signals are rule-based flags - not trade recommendations.

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Live

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 29?

Updated 1102h ago

Why this is interesting: Recent signal activity and market movement

YES

79.0%

NO

21.0%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Confidence

Mid

Volume

111.7K vol

View Signal

Quick signals

Provider snapshot

A quick side-by-side view of recent movers and active signals by provider.

Movers

Signals

  • No active signals yet.

Top opportunities right now

Ranked by model edge and market inefficiencies · Updated live

Last updated Mar 29, 10:23 AM UTC

All →

No strong opportunities right now

Markets are currently efficient. Showing latest signals below.

Payout & breakeven calculator

Quick payoff math for a $1 / $0 per-share market. Informational only.

Methodology →

Payout & breakeven calculator

Informational only. Uses a simplified $1 / $0 payoff per share.

Cost

$4.40

Payout if correct

$10.00

Max profit

$5.60

Max loss

$4.40

Breakeven probability (for YES)

44.0%

If your true probability for YES is above this, the trade is positive EV in expectation (under that belief).