Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Culture · market-implied 14.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+2.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
14.5%
Model estimate
16.5%
YES
14.5%
NO
85.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+7.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
14.5%
Model estimate
21.5%
YES
14.5%
NO
85.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.0 pts · Δ24h +3.0 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 14.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 16.5%, indicating a possible +2.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 3.5× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO