Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?
Trump · market-implied 90.0%
Recent price
Federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over his congressional testimony in June 2025 about the renovation of the Central Bank’s headquarters (See: https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/11/business/federal-prosecutors-criminal-investigation-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell). This market will resolve to “Yes” if this criminal investigation into Jerome Powell is dropped by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The investigation will be considered to be dropped if it is definitively announced by the DoJ, Donald Trump, or other relevant members of the Trump Administration that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment, or if the investigation is otherwise confirmed to have ended without charges by a broad consensus of credible reporting. Official statements from Donald Trump or other Trump Administration officials will only suffice to resolve this market to “Yes” if they definitively indicate that the investigation is or will be ended without proceeding to any charges or indictment. Suggestions, informal statements, statements that there will be no charges for now, or other statements that do not meet this standard will not alone qualify. If the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell as a result of this investigation, within this market’s timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence HighEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
90.0%
Model estimate
-
YES
90.0%
NO
10.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +72.5 pts · Δ24h +72.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
90.0%
NO
10.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.020 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 90.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 90.0%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +72.5 pts · Δ24h +72.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO