BinaryStreaks

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Updated 8h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 0.8%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~50,712,108.445← All markets

Recent price

0.8%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Active signals

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket
Above estimate

Arbitrage Opportunity

Confidence High
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+24.4 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

0.8%

Model estimate

25.2%

YES

0.8%

NO

99.3%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: 49.0% vs 1.4% · gap 47.6 pts · volume_pair_seed

Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Mid-high
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+48.3 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

0.8%

Model estimate

49.0%

YES

0.8%

NO

99.3%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +48.3 pts · Δ24h +48.3 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 0.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 25.2%, indicating a possible +24.4 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: 49.0% vs 1.4% · gap 47.6 pts · volume_pair_seed

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →

Related markets

No related markets found.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
1¢
Best ask (buy)
2¢
Spread
0¢
Midpoint
1¢

NO

No live book