Will Estonia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Culture · market-implied 28.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
28.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
28.5%
NO
71.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -10.0 pts (same direction)
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+10.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
28.5%
Model estimate
38.5%
YES
28.5%
NO
71.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 28.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 28.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -10.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO