Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Culture · market-implied 64.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named country finishes Eurovision 2026 as one of the top 5 highest scoring candidates. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
64.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
64.5%
NO
35.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +18.5 pts · Δ24h +20.0 pts (same direction)
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-6.8 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
64.5%
Model estimate
42.3%
YES
64.5%
NO
35.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -1.5 pts · 3.0× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
64.5%
NO
35.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.090 vs 0.025 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 64.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 64.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +18.5 pts · Δ24h +20.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO