Will Moldova win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
Culture · market-implied 3.3%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
-0.2 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
3.3%
Model estimate
96.9%
YES
3.3%
NO
96.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -8.4 pts · Δ24h -17.4 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
3.3%
NO
96.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.012 vs 0.019 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 3.3%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 3.1%, indicating a possible -0.2 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -8.4 pts · Δ24h -17.4 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO