Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?
Culture · market-implied 1.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of April 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+0.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
1.5%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
1.5%
NO
98.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -20.6 pts · Δ24h -20.6 pts (same direction)
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+41.5 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
1.5%
Model estimate
43.0%
YES
1.5%
NO
98.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +10.4 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 1.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +0.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -20.6 pts · Δ24h -20.6 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO