Culture · market-implied 12.0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Braden Eric Peters (known as Clavicular) is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Clavicular is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence. Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.” If at any point all charges against Clavicular for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
12.0%
Model estimate
13.5%
YES
12.0%
NO
88.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -6.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
12.0%
NO
88.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.010 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 12.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 13.5%, indicating a possible +1.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -6.0 pts (same direction)
YES
NO