Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Culture · market-implied 65.0%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-5.3 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
65.0%
Model estimate
40.3%
YES
65.0%
NO
35.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +5.5 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
65.0%
Model estimate
-
YES
65.0%
NO
35.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.0 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 65.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 59.7%, indicating a possible -5.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +5.5 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO