Culture · market-implied 3.4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the above actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter. If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
3.4%
NO
96.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.127 vs 0.011 · wide
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+4.9 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
3.4%
Model estimate
8.2%
YES
3.4%
NO
96.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +7.5 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.127 vs 0.011 · wide
YES
NO