CDC issues Level 4 warning by December 31?
Science · market-implied 22.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 4 (“Avoid All Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A Level 4 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-0.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
22.5%
Model estimate
78.0%
YES
22.5%
NO
77.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +10.0 pts · Δ24h +5.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
22.5%
NO
77.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.070 vs 0.055 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 22.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 22.0%, indicating a possible -0.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +10.0 pts · Δ24h +5.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO