Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?
Science · market-implied 1.7%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+1.7 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
1.7%
Model estimate
3.4%
YES
1.7%
NO
98.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -12.8 pts · Δ24h -12.8 pts (same direction)
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+16.7 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
1.7%
Model estimate
18.3%
YES
1.7%
NO
98.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -19.6 pts · 3.3× typical volatility
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 1.7%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 3.4%, indicating a possible +1.7 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -12.8 pts · Δ24h -12.8 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO