Named storm forms before hurricane season?
Science · market-implied 5.5%
Recent price
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30. This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms. If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+28.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
5.5%
Model estimate
33.5%
YES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 4.0× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
5.5%
Model estimate
7.0%
YES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.5 pts · Δ24h -4.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
5.5%
NO
94.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.060 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 5.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 33.5%, indicating a possible +28.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 4.0× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO