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Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next President of Vietnam?

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 0.1%

—Volume ~15,408,527.579← All markets

Recent price

0.1%

Vietnam’s President is selected through internal decisions of the Communist Party of Vietnam and its National Assembly. The Party is holding its 14th National Congress from January 19 to January 25, 2026, after which the National Assembly of Vietnam is expected to elect leadership positions including President. This market will resolve to the next individual who is formally elected by the National Assembly to assume the office of President of Vietnam. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally elected to assume the office of President. Any acting, interim, or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market. If the offices of President of Vietnam and General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam are merged such that an individual is elected to hold a joint office as leader of the party and head of state of Vietnam, this market will resolve to that individual. If no such President is elected by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the National Assembly of Vietnam; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Active signals

No active signals for this market.