Finance · market-implied 12.5%
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Silver futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-1.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
12.5%
Model estimate
88.5%
YES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +2.0 pts · 3.2× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-4.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
12.5%
Model estimate
92.0%
YES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.5 pts (same direction)
This market is currently priced at 12.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 11.5%, indicating a possible -1.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +2.0 pts · 3.2× typical volatility
YES
NO