Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Culture · market-implied 8.0%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
8.0%
Model estimate
-
YES
8.0%
NO
92.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
8.0%
NO
92.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.015 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 8.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 8.0%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO