Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"?

Updated 8d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Culture · market-implied 82.0%

Above estimatePolymarketVolume ~59,777.388← All markets

Recent price

82.0%

"The Boys: Season 5" is scheduled to air weekly, beginning April 8, 2026, and ending with the finale on May 20, 2026 This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "The Boys: Season 5". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will still qualify. Deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "The Boys: Season 5" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "The Boys: Season 5" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "The Boys: Season 5" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "The Boys: Season 5" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "The Boys: Season 5" is released.

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 82.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 79.0%, indicating a possible -3.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +7.5 pts · Δ24h +9.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
78¢
Best ask (buy)
86¢
Spread
Midpoint
82¢
Depth (top level)
bid 8 · ask 6.01

NO

Best bid (sell)
14¢
Best ask (buy)
22¢
Spread
Midpoint
18¢
Depth (top level)
bid 6.01 · ask 8