Madrid Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Sports · market-implied 37.5%

Volume ~7,660.569← All markets

Recent price

37.5%

This market refers to the tennis match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Thiago Agustin Tirante in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Roberto Bautista Agut' if Roberto Bautista Agut advances against Thiago Agustin Tirante. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Agustin Tirante' if Thiago Agustin Tirante advances against Roberto Bautista Agut. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
37¢
Best ask (buy)
38¢
Spread
Midpoint
38¢
Depth (top level)
bid 294.05 · ask 198.76

NO

Best bid (sell)
62¢
Best ask (buy)
63¢
Spread
Midpoint
63¢
Depth (top level)
bid 198.76 · ask 294.05