Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Politics · market-implied 41.1%

Above estimateVolume ~1,081,386.66← All markets

Recent price

41.1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Active signals

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?Above estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low

Opportunity: NO sideModel leaning NO

Edge

-30.6 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

41.1%

Model estimate

89.5%

YES