Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Market-implied 15.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-3.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
15.5%
Model estimate
87.5%
YES
15.5%
NO
84.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
15.5%
NO
84.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 15.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 12.5%, indicating a possible -3.0 percentage point difference.
Over the last 10h, market-implied probability moved from 16.5% to 15.5% (-1.0 pts).
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
No related markets found.
Execution
YES
NO