BinaryStreaks

Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

Updated 11h ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Crypto · market-implied 18.5%

Below estimatePolymarketVolume ~12,306.735← All markets

Recent price

18.5%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

Active signals

Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
Polymarket
Below estimate

Trend Continuation

Confidence Low
Opportunity: YES sideModel leaning YES

Edge

+17.0 pts

Strong edge

Market-implied

18.5%

Model estimate

35.5%

YES

18.5%

NO

81.5%

Market-implied probability split (public data)

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -10.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 18.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 35.5%, indicating a possible +17.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h -10.0 pts · Δ24h -4.0 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
  • Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.

Related links

Browse all markets →Browse signals →Explore related topic →More in Crypto →

Related markets

Execution

YES

No live book

NO

No live book