Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
Crypto · market-implied 45.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+3.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
45.5%
Model estimate
49.0%
YES
45.5%
NO
54.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -8.5 pts · Δ24h -8.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
45.5%
NO
54.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 vs 0.030 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 45.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 49.0%, indicating a possible +3.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -8.5 pts · Δ24h -8.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related links
Execution
YES
NO