Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
World · market-implied 42.8%
Recent price
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence HighEdge
-0.8 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
42.8%
Model estimate
58.1%
YES
42.8%
NO
57.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.4 pts · 6.8× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+0.1 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
42.8%
Model estimate
42.9%
YES
42.8%
NO
57.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.7 pts · Δ24h +3.7 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
42.8%
NO
57.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.005 vs 0.001 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 42.8%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 41.9%, indicating a possible -0.8 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -3.4 pts · 6.8× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related links
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO