Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?
Science · market-implied 37.0%
Recent price
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+4.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
37.0%
Model estimate
41.5%
YES
37.0%
NO
63.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-highYES
37.0%
NO
63.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.370 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 37.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 41.5%, indicating a possible +4.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO