Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Science · market-implied 36.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-1.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
36.5%
Model estimate
64.5%
YES
36.5%
NO
63.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -5.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
36.5%
NO
63.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.020 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 36.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 35.5%, indicating a possible -1.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.0 pts · Δ24h -5.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Related markets
Execution
YES
NO