MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
Crypto · market-implied 0.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of MegaETH's token is greater than $4,000,000,000 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." For the purposes of this market "locked" tokens or non-swappable tokens will not be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 24 hours after launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If MegaETH doesn't launch a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.5%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.3 pts · Δ24h -3.3 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.5%
NO
99.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.006 vs 0.005 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +1.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.3 pts · Δ24h -3.3 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO