Politics · market-implied 17.5%
This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Attorney General. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for United States Attorney General will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Attorney General. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Attorney General will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Attorney General by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by June 30". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
17.5%
NO
82.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.050 vs 0.020 · thin top-book
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
17.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
17.5%
NO
82.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +8.0 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.050 vs 0.020 · thin top-book
YES
NO