Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
Science · market-implied 59.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
-1.2 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
59.5%
Model estimate
41.8%
YES
59.5%
NO
40.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -6.5 pts · 3.4× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-4.5 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
59.5%
Model estimate
45.0%
YES
59.5%
NO
40.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -6.5 pts · Δ24h -6.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence Mid-lowYES
59.5%
NO
40.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.090 vs 0.060 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 59.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 58.3%, indicating a possible -1.2 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move -6.5 pts · 3.4× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO