Tech · market-implied 11.0%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government. Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process. Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+0.5 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
11.0%
Model estimate
11.5%
YES
11.0%
NO
89.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
11.0%
NO
89.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 11.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 11.5%, indicating a possible +0.5 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +3.5 pts · Δ24h +3.0 pts (same direction)
YES
NO