Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
Culture · market-implied 28.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-2.0 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
28.5%
Model estimate
73.5%
YES
28.5%
NO
71.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
28.5%
NO
71.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 28.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 26.5%, indicating a possible -2.0 percentage point difference.
Over the last 11h, market-implied probability moved from 28.0% to 28.5% (+0.5 pts).
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.5 pts · Δ24h +4.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO