Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?
Culture · market-implied 21.6%
Recent price
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-2.3 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
21.6%
Model estimate
80.7%
YES
21.6%
NO
78.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.7 pts · Δ24h +3.8 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
21.6%
NO
78.3%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.007 vs 0.012 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 21.6%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 19.4%, indicating a possible -2.3 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.7 pts · Δ24h +3.8 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO
No live book