Politics · market-implied 12.5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly praises Allah between the time of its creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying statement includes any remark by Donald Trump that expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence for the Islamic deity referred to as Allah. This can include direct praise (e.g., “Praise be to Allah”) or equivalent positive descriptions (“Allah is great”). General neutrality or polite diplomatic language (e.g., “Yes, I posted about Allah”) will not qualify unless it contains a clear element of positive evaluation. Any written, verbal, or recorded usage will qualify. Text or speech contained in images, memes, or videos posted by Trump on his official social media accounts will qualify if it clearly expresses approval, admiration, respect, or reverence toward Allah, provided that any additional posted commentary from Trump does not explicitly contradict that sentiment. Media contained only within reposts or posts quoted by Trump will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
12.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
12.5%
NO
87.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.010 vs 0.015 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 12.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 12.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.0 pts · Δ24h -3.0 pts (same direction)
YES
NO