Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election?
Politics · market-implied 98.9%
Recent price
General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Peruvian Chamber of Deputies election. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If the 2026 Peruvian general election is conducted under a unicameral legislative system, this market will resolve based on the results of that unicameral congressional election. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Peruvian Chamber of Deputies. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/).
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
-64.4 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
98.9%
Model estimate
65.5%
YES
98.9%
NO
1.1%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
98.9%
NO
1.1%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.007 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 98.9%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 34.5%, indicating a possible -64.4 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -3.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
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Execution
YES
NO