Politics · market-implied 55.0%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not qualify as diplomatic meetings. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating in negotiations at the meeting. If the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+3.0 pts
Moderate edge
Market-implied
55.0%
Model estimate
58.0%
YES
55.0%
NO
45.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -7.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
55.0%
NO
45.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.030 vs 0.025 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 55.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 58.0%, indicating a possible +3.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -3.5 pts · Δ24h -7.5 pts (same direction)
YES
NO