Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Crypto · market-implied 1.4%
Recent price
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daylight (https://x.com/daylightenergy) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Daylight, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence MidEdge
+22.6 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
1.4%
Model estimate
24.0%
YES
1.4%
NO
98.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -27.5 pts · Δ24h -27.5 pts (same direction)
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
+21.1 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
1.4%
Model estimate
22.5%
YES
1.4%
NO
98.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move -2.0 pts · 4.0× typical volatility
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
1.4%
NO
98.7%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.016 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 1.4%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 24.0%, indicating a possible +22.6 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -27.5 pts · Δ24h -27.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Related links
Execution
YES
NO