TJR mentee Timmeh earns prop payout in 30 days?

Updated 13d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 59.0%

PolymarketVolume ~31,198.075← All markets

Recent price

59.0%

This market resolves to “Yes” if Timmeh successfully completes the proprietary trading 30 day challenge as outlined on stream earning a payout from a proprietary trading firm. Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.” “Successfully completes the challenge” refers to satisfying the stated profit target and all risk, drawdown, and trading requirements necessary to qualify for a profit payout under the rules described during the stream. A qualifying payout must be directly attributable to performance achieved during the 30-day challenge period. If Timmeh does not successfully complete the challenge within the 30-day window, this market resolves to “No.” The primary resolution source will be the livestream itself, including on-stream confirmation and evidence of challenge completion.

Market summary

This market is currently priced at 59.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 59.0%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.

Why this is flagged: Δ6h +8.0 pts · Δ24h +9.5 pts (same direction)

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Related markets

No related markets found.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
52¢
Best ask (buy)
65¢
Spread
13¢
Midpoint
59¢

NO

No live book