Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?
Finance · market-implied 24.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the named airline announces that it will file for bankruptcy or has filed for bankruptcy of any variety by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement will suffice for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if or when the actual filing occurs. The announcement must be made through any of their official or verified channels, as a recorded or written statement by their CEO, legal representation, or other individual or team which officially represents the company. A definitive consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+11.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
24.5%
Model estimate
35.5%
YES
24.5%
NO
75.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +21.0 pts · Δ24h +21.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence LowYES
24.5%
NO
75.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.230 vs 0.010 · wide
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 24.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 35.5%, indicating a possible +11.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +21.0 pts · Δ24h +21.0 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
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Execution
YES
NO