Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 21?
Culture · market-implied 0.4%
Recent price
If the 12th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by April 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+15.1 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
0.4%
Model estimate
15.5%
YES
0.4%
NO
99.6%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -19.5 pts · Δ24h -19.5 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.4%
NO
99.6%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.047 vs 0.033 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.4%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 15.5%, indicating a possible +15.1 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -19.5 pts · Δ24h -19.5 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
- Larger gaps can persist when the market is thin, has wide spreads, or is slow to update.
Execution
YES
NO