Politics · market-implied 14.0%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. Energy Information Administration publishes a weekly figure for U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve less than or equal to the specified value for any week ending on or before June 5, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the listed value is reached, or once data has been released for the final week ending on or before June 5, 2026, and the listed value has not been reached. If data has not been released for the final week ending on or before June 5 2026, by June 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Energy Information Administration, specifically the weekly data published for the U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSSTUS1&f=W. Note: this market’s resolution source publishes weekly values of U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in thousands of barrels. Thus, this will be the level of specificity used to resolve this market.
Trend Continuation
Confidence Mid-lowEdge
+8.0 pts
Strong edge
Market-implied
14.0%
Model estimate
22.0%
YES
14.0%
NO
86.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +14.0 pts · Δ24h +13.0 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
14.0%
NO
86.0%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.120 vs 0.230 · thin top-book
This market is currently priced at 14.0%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 22.0%, indicating a possible +8.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +14.0 pts · Δ24h +13.0 pts (same direction)
YES
NO