Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Updated 5d ago

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Model estimate

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no model estimate.

Edge / gap

The difference between the model estimate and market-implied, in percentage points (model minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only-not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to the model estimate when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Confidence

A simple UI clarity label for signals (not a prediction). It summarizes the signal’s own magnitude/quality metrics into one of: Low, Mid-low, Mid, Mid-high, or High.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card-often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Politics · market-implied 11.5%

PolymarketVolume ~99,150.285← All markets

Recent price

11.5%

This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Attorney General. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for United States Attorney General will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for Attorney General. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify. A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be United States Attorney General will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next United States Attorney General by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by June 30". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump and the Trump Administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Market summary

This page summarizes current market-implied probability and any active rule-based signals from ingested public data.

Why this is flagged: Spread 0.050 vs 0.020 · thin top-book

What this means

  • This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
  • Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
  • BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.

Execution

YES

Best bid (sell)
11¢
Best ask (buy)
12¢
Spread
Midpoint
12¢
Depth (top level)
bid 400 · ask 521.58

NO

Best bid (sell)
88¢
Best ask (buy)
89¢
Spread
Midpoint
89¢
Depth (top level)
bid 521.58 · ask 400