BinaryStreaks

X banned in U.K. by March 31?

How to read the numbers

Implied / market-implied YES

The probability of YES implied by current traded prices (mid or last). It is what participants are paying for, not a claim about real-world odds.

Estimated fair value (EFV)

A rule-based heuristic from the signal engine when a rule sets one, not a black-box forecast. Some signals only describe liquidity or spreads and may show no EFV.

Edge / gap

The difference between EFV and market-implied, in percentage points (EFV minus market for YES). Filters may use “largest gap.” This is informational only—not trading advice or guaranteed advantage.

Stance (above / below / near estimate)

Compares market-implied to EFV when both exist. Labels are not buy or sell recommendations.

Severity

How strong the rule hit is on a 1–5 scale. It reflects rule strength, not statistical confidence that the outcome will occur.

Volume

Reported trading activity for the market, for context on size and liquidity.

Change & sparklines

Movement in market-implied YES over the window labeled on the card—often 24h where data allows.

Signals

Rule-based flags from ingested public data. They are not trade recommendations.

More detail in Methodology.

Market-implied 0.3%

—Volume ~2,228,095.408← All markets

Recent price

0.3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if use of X/Twitter is banned within the United Kingdom by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar U.K. citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of if or when the ban goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Kingdom and X/Twitter, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Active signals

X banned in U.K. by March 31?—

Order book

Market-implied

0.3%

Est. fair value

—

No EFV for this rule — liquidity / spread only.

Severity1 / 5

Why this is flagged: Top-of-book liquidity is thinner than usual at a 0.002 bid–ask spread—min side is well under recent median depth. Prices may be noisier.

X banned in U.K. by March 31? | BinaryStreaks