Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
Science · market-implied 0.3%
Recent price
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 versus the data points available for all other Aprils on record. Note: If April 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Active signals
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
+1.8 pts
Early edge
Market-implied
0.3%
Model estimate
2.0%
YES
0.3%
NO
99.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.3 pts · Δ24h -4.3 pts (same direction)
Low Liquidity Warning
Confidence MidYES
0.3%
NO
99.8%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Spread 0.002 · thin top-book
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 0.3%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 2.0%, indicating a possible +1.8 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: Δ6h -4.3 pts · Δ24h -4.3 pts (same direction)
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
Execution
YES
NO