Evo Morales arrested by May 31
Politics · market-implied 19.5%
Recent price
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Active signals
Market Overreaction
Confidence MidEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
19.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
19.5%
NO
80.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.0 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
Trend Continuation
Confidence LowEdge
0.0 pts
Market-implied
19.5%
Model estimate
-
YES
19.5%
NO
80.5%
Market-implied probability split (public data)
Why this is flagged: Δ6h +4.0 pts · Δ24h +5.5 pts (same direction)
Market summary
This market is currently priced at 19.5%, while BinaryStreaks estimates fair value at 19.5%, indicating a possible 0.0 percentage point difference.
Why this is flagged: 1h move +3.0 pts · 3.1× typical volatility
What this means
- This may indicate the market is repricing new information, or reacting to liquidity and order flow.
- Signals are informational only and not trading advice.
- BinaryStreaks uses public market data and deterministic, rule-based analysis.
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Execution
YES
NO